More than 100,000 Iowans on Tuesday are expected to cast the first official votes in the 2012 presidential election. All eyes are on Iowa's Republican Caucuses because some believe the process will perhaps propel one of the candidates to a clear national frontrunner status in a year where nearly all of them have enjoyed momentary surges in an election cycle colored by rather fickle national opinion polls and an electorate seemingly dissatisfied with the choices.
A top finish in Iowa does not destine a candidate for victory in the nominating process though. It will mostly help further vet candidates, hoist an immense spotlight on the top finishers, spur fundraising for the victors and perhaps most evidently illuminate the most socially conservative candidate of the bunch.
Frankie Hughes, 14, a protester affiliated with the Occupy Wall Street movement, demonstrates outside Iowa Democratic Party headquarters on Dec. 29 in Des Moines. Thirteen people were arrested.
GETTY IMAGES PHOTO
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In 2008, a presidential long shot and social conservative, the former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, won the Iowa Caucuses, propelling him temporarily into the top tier of GOP presidential candidates. His campaign eventually fizzled. That same year, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney finished second in Iowa while the sleepy campaign of former Sen. Fred Thompson finished third. The eventual Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, finished fourth.
This cycle, former Sen. Rick Santorum has invested substantial resources in the state. A Rasmussen poll released Thursday showing him surging to third place in Iowa illustrated that his campaign's investment was paying off. The poll found that the former Pennsylvania senator had the support of 16 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers. That poll had Romney leading, at 23 percent, followed by Rep. Ron Paul, at 22 percent.
Santorum is hoping for his own Huckabee moment in Iowa because of his social-conservative credentials. A recent Des Moines Register poll found that 45 percent of Iowa's likely Republican caucus-goers identify themselves as "very socially conservative," and Santorum is banking on that to help his candidacy.
But the dynamics of the 2012 race likely won't hand Santorum a victory like Huckabee earned in 2008.
Huckabee was viewed by many as the only choice for social conservatives ? particularly evangelical Christians ? and his candidacy benefited from the substantial number of social conservative voters in the Hawkeye State. This time around, though, those voters have more choices, including Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Michelle Bachmann, both of whom have campaigned aggressively in Iowa and have credibility with social conservatives.
The result is that conservative caucus-goers will be split in their support, creating a dynamic where Romney and Paul likely will end up as the top finishers.
Several evangelical leaders in Iowa recognized this and began calling on Bachmann to drop out of the race and help Santorum. Cary Gordon, a pastor in Sioux City, has reportedly asked Bachmann to suspend her campaign and support Santorum, as has another state evangelical leader, Albert Callaway, a former pastor in Indianola.
"It seems to me that it's time for her to close down shop," Cary said.
Bachmann's campaign has seen better days. In August, she won the coveted Iowa Straw Poll. But on top of the pressure to quit the race from some religious leaders, Bachmann's campaign suffered another blow Wednesday when her top Iowa political adviser, Kent Sorenson, defected to the Ron Paul campaign. He said he left because Paul has a good chance of upsetting Romney in Iowa. Paul last week also received the endorsement of Kelly Clarkson, the pop singer and, in 2002, the first winner of "American Idol."
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who a few weeks ago was the candidate de jour of the GOP primary, also has lost some momentum in Iowa. The previously referenced Rasmussen poll shows Gingrich tied for fourth place with Perry. But, much like the McCain campaign in 2008, the Gingrich campaign has proved resilient. Gingrich on Thursday won the endorsement of famed economist Art Laffer.
For all the attention now focused on Iowa, the spotlight after Tuesday shifts to New Hampshire and the first actual primary election, Jan. 10. That will be followed by South Carolina, Jan. 21, and then the Florida primary Jan. 31.
Iowa may help narrow the Republican field and identify the most socially conservative presidential hopeful, but not much else will be decided Tuesday.
Contact the writer: bcalle@ocregister.com
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